The revolution will be televised ... through the Internet. By 2021, 82 percent of all consumer IP traffic will be video, and that growth will be boosted by a blessing on live streaming courtesy of services like Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Meanwhile, the Internet will become an even larger part of the structure of how we do it all, growing to 3.3 traffic zettabytes annually in 2021, up to three times compared to Internet traffic today (and working up to 278 exabytes at month).
The figures are courtesy of the Cisco network giant, which has just released its annual forecast of Internet trends, the Red Visual Index, a 12-year project that brings together various forecasts from independent analysts with Cisco network usage data gathers To their customers and their customers. Own servers.
The bigger picture you get from the report, especially as you read it along with some of the other efforts of glass marquee ball as the Internet trends of Maria Meeker, is one of an increasingly connected world, Where more and more activity is moving in the digital ether.
According to Cisco's calculations, there will be 27 billion devices and connections globally by 2021, with 3.5 per-capita network devices in 2021 - compared to 2.3 network per capita devices last year (2016 ). With that increased connectivity - and the corresponding growth in network speed and services running on those networks - we will also see a boom in IP traffic, which reached 35 GB per capita in 2016, compared to 13 GB in 2012.
You can look through the larger report here. Here are some highlights:
Internet of Things: The trend of connected objects - where previously "dumb", unconnected physical things can now communicate with us, the network and with each other - continues with its quiet yet growing presence. Half of the 27 billion devices connected in 2021 will be IoT objects, or 13.7 billion connections. Cisco says that healthcare will take the lead in IoT, with growth of 30 percent per year.
Video: The popularity of video is already a major force in our world today, where it accounted for 73 percent of all Internet consumer traffic in 2016. That will continue to increase, and will be 82 percent of all Internet traffic Consumer, 31 percent, before 2021. One of the biggest drivers here will be live video. This will be 13 percent of Internet video traffic in 2021, even lower than other types of video streaming, but what is key here is how it grows 15 times between 2016 and 2021, representing the greatest growth opportunity for new entrants And creators compared to the long queue for recorded and existing content.
One of the components of this trend is the shift from traditional broadcasting networks to television delivered through intellectual property, and the resulting repercussion effect for traditional pay-TV service providers.
Cisco says the average "cable cut" home generates 117 GB per month in Internet traffic, versus 63 GB for homes that have Internet, but also a pay-TV service.
Wi-Fi is the name of the game: Cisco predicts that Wi-Fi will continue to represent the majority of Internet traffic, with 53 percent of all accesses, versus 20 percent for mobile and 27 percent for fixed access. Interestingly, Wi-Fi growth is virtually unchanged from today: it was 52 percent of all traffic last year, with the big change steady, falling 11 percentage points and cell phones gaining 10 percentage points.
However, Wi-Fi hotspots and home access points will continue to expand, to 541.6 million in 2021 (from 94 million last year). Home Wi-Fi will be the vast majority of this figure. China will lead the world in the use of Wi-Fi with 170 million access points, followed by the US. In 86 million.
DDoS attacks will continue to increase: Cisco also tracks some security metrics in its index and says that the size of DDoS attacks will "steadily increase" to approach 1.2 Gbps by 2012 "enough to take most organizations completely Offline "and networks with traffic. DDoS attacks can account for up to 18 percent of a country's Internet traffic when they are at their peak.
Currently, DDoS seems to be increasing at about the same speed as Internet traffic itself, as the sizes grew, respectively, by 22 percent and 29 percent. The number of DDoS attacks increased by 172 percent last year and will reach 3.1 million attacks annually worldwide in 2021.
